India is set to become the world's most populous country

India is set to become the world’s most populous country

India will overtake China this year and become the world’s most populous country.
India’s chances of surpassing that milestone in a matter of months soared on Tuesday. When China reported its population decline in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years.
The shift will have major economic implications for the two Asian giants, with more than 1.4 billion residents in each country.
In addition to demographic data China also reported one of the worst economic growth figures in nearly half a century. It highlights the steep challenges the country faces. As the labor force shrinks and the position of retiree’s soars.
for india what economists and analysts call A “demographic dividend” could support further rapid growth as the number of healthy workers increases.
However, there are fears that the country may miss the opportunity. That’s because India has not created employment opportunities for the millions of young job seekers who come to work every year.

The South Asian nation’s working-age population is more than 900 million, according to 2021 data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This figure is expected to exceed 1 billion in the next decade. According to Indian government data
But these numbers could become a burden if policymakers don’t create enough jobs. experts warn Data shows that more and more Indians are not looking for work. due to lack of opportunities and low wages
Indian Labor Force Participation Rate This estimates the number of active and job-seeking workers at 46%, the lowest in Asia, according to 2021 data from the World Bank. China and the US rates were 68% and 61% respectively in the same year.
for women The numbers are even more shocking. Women’s work participation rate in India was 19% in 2021, down from about 26% in 2005, World Bank data shows.
“India is sitting on a ticking time bomb,” Chandrasekhar Sripada, a professor of organizational behavior at the Indian School of Business, told CNN.
India’s unemployment rate in December was 8.3%, according to the Center for Economic Monitoring of India (CMIE), an independent think tank headquartered in Mumbai. which publishes job information more regularly than the Government of India. on the contrary US rate, it was about 3.5% at the end of last year.
“India has the youngest population in the world. There is no shortage of funds these days,” CMIE CEO Mahesh Vyas wrote in a blog post last year. “In principle India should seize this rare opportunity. Easy-to-find labor and capital to fuel rapid growth. However, this bus seems to be missing.”

Not everyone is an engineer

Lack of high-quality education is one of the main reasons behind India’s unemployment crisis. Sripada said there have been “big failures at the educational level” by policymakers. adding that Indian educational institutions emphasize “learning by rote” rather than “creativity”
The consequences of a toxic mix of rudeness and lack of work. resulting in thousands of college graduates including those who have a Ph.D. End up applying for lowly government jobs, such as jobs for “civil servants” or clerks. paying less than $300 per person per month.
The good news is that politicians are aware of this problem and are beginning to “There is now a reasonable focus on skills development,” Sripada said, but it will take several years to see the impact of the new policy. he added
Asia’s third-largest economy will also need to create more non-farm jobs to reach its full economic potential. According to the latest government data, more than 45% of the Indian workforce is employed in agriculture.
The country needs to create at least 90 million non-farm jobs by 2030 to accommodate new workers, according to a 2020 McKinsey Global Institute report. Experts say many of these jobs could be created in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
As tensions between China and the West rise, India has made progress in boosting manufacturing by attracting major foreign companies such as Apple to produce more in the country. But factories still account for just 14% of India’s GDP, according to the World Bank.
With a GDP growth forecast of 6.8% for this fiscal year that ends in March. South Asian countries are expected to be the fastest growing major economies in the world. But according to a former central banker, this growth is still “not enough.”
Former Central Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said: “Most of the growth is unemployment growth. Work is one of the main tasks of the economy. We don’t want everyone to be a programmer or software consultant. But we need a proper job,” said Raghuram Rajan, a former central bank governor. India told the NDTV media company last year
According to the Mckinsey report, for “this level of profitable and productive job growth, India’s GDP will need to grow by 8.0-8.5% per year over the next decade.”

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